India has officially become the largest exporter of smartphones to the United States, marking a historic shift in global supply chains that reflects Donald Trump’s economic strategy of sidelining China in favor of India. According to new data from tech research firm Canalys (now part of Omdia), India-made smartphones accounted for 44% of U.S. imports in the second quarter of 2025. That’s a massive leap from just 13% in the same quarter last year.
Meanwhile, China’s share of smartphone exports to the U.S. has plummeted from 61% to just 25%, dropping the country to third place behind Vietnam.
Trump’s Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Supply Chains
The dramatic change is largely due to Apple’s rapid shift in manufacturing out of China. This pivot is a direct response to Trump’s steep 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, part of his broader strategy to revive American manufacturing by making imports from China more expensive. China responded with its own 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, but the damage was already done.
“Apple has scaled up its production capacity in India over the last several years,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, principal analyst at Canalys. “Most of its export capacity in India has been dedicated to supply the U.S. market in 2025.”
Apple’s decision is part of a wider “China Plus One” strategy, which aims to diversify supply chains away from China amid rising geopolitical tensions. Even though smartphones are technically exempt from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed that U.S.-sold iPhones still face a minimum 20% tariff. As a result, Cook expects that “the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. will have India as their country of origin.”
Made-in-India Phones Surge 240% in a Year
Canalys reports that the volume of India-made smartphone exports to the U.S. surged by 240% compared to last year. At the same time, the U.S. smartphone market grew just 1% overall, indicating that this is not about rising demand, but about suppliers racing to avoid the next round of Trump’s tariffs.
Samsung and Motorola have also expanded their Indian manufacturing operations for U.S. supply, though their moves are slower and smaller than Apple’s. Samsung still relies mostly on Vietnam, while Motorola remains largely dependent on China.
Geopolitical Risks Drive Business Decisions
Trump’s tariffs have turned economic policy into a geopolitical weapon, pushing multinational companies to rethink where they manufacture goods. During the pandemic, China’s rigid zero-Covid policy also exposed the dangers of relying too heavily on a single country, adding to the urgency of diversifying production.
Canalys notes that “the uncertain outcome of negotiations with China has accelerated supply chain reorientation.” U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are currently meeting in Sweden to discuss a possible extension of the 90-day tariff rollback. But even if a temporary truce is reached, the trend is already well underway.
Winners and Losers in a Shifting Market
While India is rising, smaller smartphone brands are struggling. The top three vendors—Apple, Samsung, and Motorola—now hold over 90% of the U.S. market. Mid-size companies like HMD are pulling back from the U.S., citing high investment costs and unpredictable trade policies. Brands like OnePlus and Nothing are trying to survive through direct online sales and big-box retailers like Walmart and BestBuy, but their impact is limited.
In terms of shipments:
- Apple dropped 11% year-over-year but still leads with 49% market share
- Samsung surged 38% to reach 31%
- Motorola grew 2% and holds 12%
- Google and TCL hold just 3% each, with TCL down 23%
India Emerges as the Big Beneficiary
Trump’s trade war with China appears to be paying off for India. Once an afterthought in global tech manufacturing, India is now at the center of U.S. smartphone imports. As Apple and others invest more in Indian facilities, and as geopolitical tensions remain high, this shift looks less like a temporary fix and more like a permanent realignment.
“The rebalancing of trade that Trump envisioned is happening,” said Chaurasia. “India has stepped into the vacuum left by China, and it’s doing so at the perfect time.”
For now, the numbers speak for themselves. India has become the U.S.’s most important smartphone partner—and China has lost its crown.
