Congress faces a hard deadline at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, Oct. 1. If there is no short-term funding bill, federal agencies will begin shutting down parts of their operations. The White House has signaled this lapse could look different from prior ones, and Democrats and Republicans are preparing for a standoff that could last beyond a few days.
The core disagreements blocking a deal
Both sides say they want to keep the government open, yet they disagree on what belongs in a stopgap bill. The main obstacles include:
- Extending Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at year’s end.
- Reversing Medicaid cuts enacted earlier this summer.
- Unfreezing congressionally approved funds that the White House has held back.
- Whether to pass a “clean” seven-week extension at current spending levels with no health provisions.
- The White House directive that agencies prepare plans for permanent workforce reductions if a shutdown occurs.
Republicans control both chambers, but the Senate’s 60-vote threshold means they still need Democratic support to advance any bill.
What Schumer is doing and what he argues
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is trying to keep Democrats unified after he drew fire in March for helping move a GOP funding patch. He is now coordinating closely with progressive groups, unions, and outside strategists. His office has set up a war room style list to share talking points and stories about families who could be hit by rising premiums.
Schumer says Republicans will feel pressure once Americans start receiving letters about higher health costs. “There’s going to be pressure on them on that,” he told the Wall Street Journal, adding that Democrats are asking Republicans to “sit down and talk to us and negotiate agreements, and you can end the shutdown.” He frames the demand simply, “All we’ve asked is that they sit down, negotiate, and help relieve the pain the Americans are feeling because of their healthcare cuts.”
Schumer says some Democratic asks beyond the subsidies are flexible. “Those things are not red lines,” he said, referring to restoring Medicaid funds and releasing frozen money, while insisting that protecting people from premium spikes must be part of any solution.
How Republicans respond
Republicans say Democrats are trying to force a policy win onto an urgent deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune argues that Schumer is posturing after criticism from his base. “He got blown up for doing the right thing,” Thune said of the March vote. Thune’s position is to fund the government first, then negotiate health care later. “Let’s fund the government and then let’s figure the rest of it out,” he said. He also noted that any final agreement would depend on where President Trump lands. “In the end, if the president is interested in weighing in, then I think there’s potentially a path forward here.”
President Trump has called Democratic demands “unserious and ridiculous,” and said “The radical left Democrats want to shut it down, and it’s up to them.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries rejects the GOP stopgap as neutral. “It’s not clean, it’s dirty. It’s not bipartisan, it’s partisan,” he said, arguing that Republicans kept spending levels Democrats oppose while refusing to address the subsidy cliff.
What a shutdown does in practice
During a shutdown, essential work continues, but nonessential tasks are paused and many workers are furloughed without pay. As many as 900,000 federal workers could be furloughed, and up to 700,000 could work without pay. A 2019 law guarantees back pay for federal employees after the shutdown ends, yet federal contractors are not guaranteed compensation. Troops would remain on duty, though pay would be delayed until new funds are appropriated.
Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid payments would continue because they are mandatory spending, but some services that support these programs could slow down. The IRS would keep taking returns and payments, although past shutdowns have delayed income verification, which can slow mortgages and other loans.
Could federal workers be fired
Possibly, and that is a major point of tension. Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought told agencies to prepare “reduction in force” plans for programs that lack current funding or another funding source, or are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.” The memo says cuts made after the deadline would be permanent. Democrats call this an intimidation tactic. Schumer predicts the firings would be reversed in court. Rep. James Walkinshaw said the administration has “no greater authority or ability to conduct mass firings, or RIFs, in a shutdown than they do when the government is open,” calling the threat “bluster.”
Experts disagree on the legal path. Sam Berger, a former OMB official, said “A shutdown provides no new legal authority to engage in widespread firings.” Rachel Greszler of the Heritage Foundation countered that agencies were told to “consider” layoff notices as a way to show which jobs could be at risk if funding is reduced.
How a shutdown could give Trump more power
Shutdowns operate under the Antideficiency Act, yet many decisions rely on precedent and agency guidance. That gives the administration latitude to label workers and functions as essential or not. Joshua Sewell of Taxpayers for Common Sense expects “this shutdown to look different than any other shutdown,” guided by what the Trump team believes helps them politically. Max Stier of the Partnership for Public Service warned that the White House and OMB “will have enormous latitude to determine which services, programs, and employees can be sidelined,” potentially going “far beyond what has occurred during past shutdowns.”
The administration has already asserted broader control over spending choices. Observers say a shutdown could let the White House focus cuts on agencies it has targeted before, including the Environmental Protection Agency and the Education Department, while steering resources to immigration enforcement and border control.
What this means for the average American
Even with core payments continuing, many people would feel the ripple effects:
- Air travel: TSA screenings continue, but unpaid agents may skip work. Air traffic controller shortages could worsen, causing delays.
- National parks and public services: Parks could close or operate with limited services. Environmental and food safety inspections may slow. Applications for aid could be delayed, and some programs might draw on state funds or pause processing.
- Taxes and lending: Slower IRS verifications can delay mortgages and other loans.
- Health costs: If subsidies are not extended, about 22.4 million people could face higher premiums. Republicans have floated a one-year extension or an income cap to limit eligibility, but those ideas are not in the seven-week bill on the table.
Do shutdowns save money
Typically they do not. Workers receive back pay, and shutting down and restarting government operations costs additional money. The 2013 shutdown lasted 16 days and furloughed about 850,000 workers. The longest shutdown, in 2018 and 2019, lasted 35 days and affected seven of the twelve appropriations bills.
Democrats face a no-win choice. They can support the GOP stopgap and anger their base, or hold out and risk a shutdown that hurts the economy and the federal workforce. “There’s not a good choice here,” said Sen. Peter Welch. Jim Manley, a former aide to Democratic leaders, said Democrats may feel they have “no choice than to fight it for all it’s worth.”
Republicans argue the clean stopgap is the only responsible option. Democrats say it ignores a looming health care crisis. The Senate returns Monday, yet House leaders plan to keep that chamber out of town until after the deadline, which limits Democrats’ ability to amend the bill before it reaches the President’s desk.
What to watch next
- Whether Republicans and the White House signal openness to any health subsidy compromise.
- Whether Senate Democrats hold together, or eight members break ranks to advance the GOP bill.
- How aggressively OMB moves on reduction-in-force notices, and whether unions or employees seek immediate court relief.
- The speed and visibility of travel delays, program pauses, and premium notices, which could shift leverage at the negotiating table.
The stakes are high for workers, families, and the balance of power in Washington. As Schumer put it, Democrats want Republicans to “come and sit down and talk to us,” while Republicans say fund the government now and debate the rest later. The result will decide whether Americans head into October facing disrupted services, higher health costs, and a stronger executive hand over the federal bureaucracy.
