Cuba’s economy is grinding to a halt after the United States moved to choke off the island’s oil supplies. Airlines are canceling flights. Hospitals are cutting services. Food prices are soaring. Long blackouts have become part of daily life.
The Trump administration says it is increasing pressure on Cuba’s communist government. Critics warn the measures risk pushing the island into a humanitarian collapse. Supporters argue the pain could force meaningful political change.
At the center of the crisis is oil.
In late January, President Donald Trump signed an executive order labeling Cuba “an unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security. The order threatens tariffs on any country that sells or provides oil to Cuba.
The move followed a U.S. military operation in Venezuela on January 3 that captured President Nicolás Maduro. Venezuela had been one of Cuba’s main oil suppliers. After that operation, Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba stopped.
Mexico, which had been supplying nearly 44 percent of Cuba’s imported oil, also halted shipments after facing U.S. pressure and tariff threats. By late January, according to shipping data cited in reports, Cuba had enough oil for only 15 to 20 days at current demand levels. The country needs an estimated 100,000 barrels of crude per day.
The last confirmed oil delivery to Cuba was from Mexico on January 9.
Is this technically a naval blockade? No. U.S. ships are not physically preventing tankers from docking. Instead, Washington is using economic pressure and tariff threats to discourage other nations from sending oil. Cuban officials call it blackmail. U.S. officials deny that a short term shift in oil shipments alone caused the crisis.
“This idea that a short term change in some amount of oil shipments is what’s responsible for the humanitarian situation in Cuba is simply not true,” said Jeremy Lewin of the State Department.
Still, the effect has been immediate.
Airlines Grounded and Tourism Hit Hard
The first visible sign of the crisis came in aviation.
Cuban authorities notified international airlines that jet fuel supplies would be suspended for at least a month. Air Canada, which had about 3,000 customers on the island, canceled all flights and began repatriating travelers. Russia’s Aeroflot said it was restricting service and flying empty planes to retrieve stranded tourists. Around 4,000 to 4,500 Russian tourists are believed to be in Cuba.
Other airlines from France, Spain, Turkey, China, and Russia have had to plan refueling stops in other Caribbean countries.
Tourism is one of Cuba’s largest sources of hard currency. At its peak, the sector brought in over 3 billion dollars annually. That figure has reportedly fallen below 1 billion. Now, with planes unable to refuel and hotels consolidating guests to save power, the industry is nearly paralyzed.
“People are very upset because all the workers here just pretty much lost their job and their livelihood,” said Canadian visitor Vicky Volonik, who was transferred to another hotel as authorities grouped guests together to conserve energy.
Rolling Blackouts and Medical Strain
For ordinary Cubans, the crisis is felt most in the dark.
Power outages have increased dramatically. In some parts of Havana, outages have stretched to 12 hours a day. In eastern regions, residents report up to 16 hours without electricity.
The United Nations says the “vast majority of Cubans” are being hit by rolling blackouts. UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric warned that the humanitarian situation “will worsen, and if not collapse, if its oil needs go unmet.”
Hospitals are struggling. Local media report that some provincial hospitals have canceled surgeries and outpatient transfers. Critical supplies such as painkillers, gauze, and antibiotics are in short supply. Cuban officials say fuel will be prioritized for essential services like public health and food production, but shortages are evident.
Olivia Garza, speaking about the potential impact of a prolonged oil cutoff, warned that without fuel “there wouldn’t be electricity for hospitals, intensive care patients could die, dialysis patients wouldn’t be able to receive their treatment.”
The United States has announced 6 million dollars in humanitarian aid, including rice, beans, pasta, canned tuna, and solar lamps, to be delivered through the Catholic Church and Caritas.
Food Shortages and Rising Prices
Fuel shortages ripple through every sector, including food.
Transportation between provinces has been reduced. Bus routes have been cut. Many state companies have moved to a four day workweek. Schools have shortened hours. Some workers have been furloughed.
“Everything is paralyzed,” said Lizzel Jimenez, 64, whose job at the Department of Agriculture has been frozen. She earns 4,000 pesos a month, less than 10 dollars, and will soon receive only 60 percent of that.
“It’s a pittance,” she said.
She described milk costing 1,600 pesos per liter and a small package of chicken drumsticks at 2,000 pesos. Just those two items stretch her monthly budget.
In Havana, gas stations are often closed. Drivers must download an app and join online queues to find fuel. Many complain the system barely works.
Raydén Decoro, 36, said, “The future is extremely uncertain but something has to happen, somehow, because we’re the ones suffering the most.”
International Reaction and Political Goals
The U.S. campaign has drawn international criticism. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called it “very unjust” and said, “You can’t strangle a nation in this way.” The UN has repeatedly called for dialogue and respect for international law.
Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez denounced what he called “cruel aggression.” President Miguel Díaz Canel has said Cuba is willing to engage in dialogue, but only without prior conditions and with respect for sovereignty.
“To surrender isn’t an option for Cuba,” Díaz Canel said. “Tough times are coming. We will overcome this together with creative resistance.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made clear that the U.S. would welcome change in Havana. “We would like to see the regime there change,” Rubio said during a Senate hearing. “That doesn’t mean that we’re going to make a change, but we would love to see a change.”
President Trump has suggested a deal is possible. “It doesn’t have to be a humanitarian crisis,” he said. “I think they probably would come to us and want to make a deal.”
A Tipping Point for Cuba?
The crisis raises a larger question. Will pressure break the system, or harden it?
Some Cubans compare the current moment to the Special Period of the 1990s, when the collapse of the Soviet Union plunged the island into deep hardship. “The revolution isn’t going to fall. We’ve been through worse,” said Carlos Villaurrutia, 61.
Others see the present as different. Oil reserves may be exhausted by April. Tourism is collapsing. Venezuela’s support is gone. Mexico is hesitating. Russia says it intends to continue shipments, but how much and how soon remains unclear.
Some analysts argue that sustained pressure could push Cuba to reconsider its alignment with Russia and China and its long standing socialist economic model. If Havana were to pivot toward market reforms and normalized relations with Washington, the island might gain access to capital, trade, and energy markets that have been closed for decades.
Community manager Yosvani Pérez offered a blunt summary: “There are several culprits, but the only victim is the people of Cuba.”
The coming months may determine whether the oil squeeze leads to collapse, compromise, or a dramatic political shift. For now, daily life on the island is slowing, darkening, and becoming more uncertain by the day.
